Ark Invest’s Analyst Predicts Seismic Price Shift for Bitcoin
David Puell, an on-chain researcher at Ark Invest, offers a nuanced view of Bitcoin’s current state and prospective future in a new report published today. The analysis forecasts an imminent seismic price shift because to historically low volatility, miner dynamics, and regulatory barriers.
Bitcoin’s calm 90-day volatility, which is similar to 2017’s, has caught ARK’s eye. There has been relative stability in recent times, but ARK is forecasting that there will soon be considerable market movement. However, the course is still unclear, and that has investors on edge.
Consistent With Prior Trend Reversals
The miners’ surrender sends a positive yet conflicting message. A drop in the hash rate may indicate an oversold market and a possible upward trend reversal. Similarly, increased “liveliness,” suggesting less selling pressure as more holders maintain their currencies, bolsters the optimistic outlook. The study indicates the biggest long-term holding behavior since the fourth quarter of 2020 when the liveliness dropped below 60% in July.
The optimistic chant is bolstered by the fact that the profit/loss ratio for short-term holders in July (ending in a negative 1) is consistent with prior trend reversals.
Bitcoin’s backstory is further complicated by macroeconomic considerations. Bitcoin’s value and the economy at large may feel the effects of the Federal Reserve’s significant interest rate rise. Bitcoin’s attractiveness as a non-inflationary asset may increase if the CPI inflation rate declines.
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